Raw material costs continue to support upward potential for graphitized carbon additives.

In-Depth Analysis of Market Supply and Demand Conditions

(I) Raw Material Side: Cost Support Shows Upward Trend

The current petroleum coke market exhibits a divergent pattern, with varying price trends across different channels. Overall, the average price for major petroleum coke stands at 3,719 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; while the average price for local refinery petroleum coke is 2,832 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. By company, Sinopec-affiliated refineries maintained moderate trading activity, while CNPC-affiliated refineries primarily stabilized prices, with some continuing upward quotations. Independent refineries saw moderate petroleum coke shipments, with most lowering prices to stimulate transactions. Overall, despite raw material divergence, the upward trend among major refineries provides cost support for graphitized carbon additives, with continued cost growth anticipated.

(II) Supply Chain: Raw Material Shortages and Supply Insufficiency Heighten Holdback Sentiment

Supply constraints in certain upstream petroleum coke segments have intensified procurement difficulties for graphitized carbon additive raw materials, resulting in overall market supply shortages. Against this backdrop, most producers maintain low inventory levels and exhibit pronounced reluctance to sell, further exacerbating supply tightness.

(III) Demand Side: Overall Demand Steady, Peak Season Momentum Yet to Unfold

This week, production activity in the downstream steel sector has moderated. Specific data indicates:

- The capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking at 247 steel mills stood at 87.81%, down 0.80 percentage points week-on-week.

- The average capacity utilization rate at 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 50.87%, down 2.12 percentage points week-on-week. Concurrently, steel mills' profitability continued to deteriorate, with the profit rate falling to 39.83% this week, down 5.19 percentage points week-on-week. As losses expand, the market anticipates further contraction in steel production.

Currently in the off-season for steel demand, market demand is unlikely to see significant improvement, and the dual weakness in supply and demand may persist. The raw material market exhibits divergent trends, with iron ore prices trending downward while coking coal and coke prices remain firm, keeping steel production costs elevated. In the short term, steel prices lack rebound momentum and are likely to maintain narrow fluctuations. Persistent weakness in downstream finished steel markets, coupled with narrowing profit margins for steel mills, has made mills' acceptance of raw material price increases the core focus of current market dynamics.

Market Trend Summary

Overall, the graphitized carbon additive market currently operates within a framework of “rising costs + supply shortages + stable demand.” Although downstream steel enterprises exhibit weak demand due to profitability pressures, the core contradictions of strengthened cost support from raw materials and tight market supply remain unchanged. Consequently, graphitized carbon additive prices are expected to retain some upward potential in the near term.